diff --git a/src/charts/narrative_dashboard.py b/src/charts/narrative_dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a1de08d --- /dev/null +++ b/src/charts/narrative_dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,293 @@ +"""Narrative Dashboard — 3×3 grid telling the AI bubble story + +FLAGSHIP chart: single figure combining all evidence streams +into a cohesive visual narrative. +""" +import sys +import os +# Ensure the project root is on sys.path so `src.*` imports work +sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))) + +import matplotlib +matplotlib.use("Agg") + +# Patch matplotlib Path.__deepcopy__ to break Python 3.14 recursion loop +# Known bug: https://github.com/matplotlib/matplotlib/issues/29280 +try: + from matplotlib.path import Path + _original_path_deepcopy = Path.__deepcopy__ + + def _safe_path_deepcopy(self, memo): + if id(self) in memo: + return memo[id(self)] + memo[id(self)] = self + return self + + Path.__deepcopy__ = _safe_path_deepcopy +except Exception: + pass + +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +import numpy as np +from src.data.market_bubbles import shiller_cape, buffett_indicator, sp500_pe +from src.data.ai_infrastructure import hyperscaler_capex_annual, nvidia_revenue +from src.data.agent_adoption import agent_survey_data, developer_ai_adoption +from src.utils.styling import ( + get_theme, EXPORT_DPI, BUBBLE_ZONE, WARNING_ZONE, NORMAL_ZONE, + GRAY_DARK, GRAY_MEDIUM, BLACK, WHITE, + AGENT_GROWTH, REVENUE, DEBT, AI_SPEND, PRODUCTIVITY, + get_company_colors, +) + + +def plot_narrative_dashboard() -> str: + """Generate the flagship 3×3 narrative dashboard. + + Returns the output file path. + """ + plt.rcParams.update(get_theme()) + + fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 3, figsize=(20, 16)) + fig.set_facecolor(WHITE) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # ROW 1: Market Bubble Evidence + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + # Panel (0,0): Shiller CAPE + ax = axes[0, 0] + years = [d["year"] for d in shiller_cape] + values = [d["value"] for d in shiller_cape] + ax.axhspan(0, 20, alpha=0.15, color=NORMAL_ZONE) + ax.axhspan(20, 30, alpha=0.15, color=WARNING_ZONE) + ax.axhspan(30, 50, alpha=0.15, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax.plot(years, values, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=0.8) + ax.axhline(y=17.39, color="#333", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.6) + ax.text(2024, 18.5, "mean: 17.4", fontsize=7, color=GRAY_MEDIUM) + ax.annotate( + f"{values[-1]:.1f}", + xy=(2026, values[-1]), fontsize=7, fontweight="bold", + color=BUBBLE_ZONE, xytext=(2023, values[-1] - 5), + arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color=BUBBLE_ZONE, lw=0.6), + ) + ax.set_title("Shiller CAPE (1880–2026)", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("CAPE") + ax.set_ylim(0, 50) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + + # Panel (0,1): Buffett Indicator + ax = axes[0, 1] + b_years = [d["year"] for d in buffett_indicator] + b_vals = [d["value"] for d in buffett_indicator] + ax.axhspan(0, 100, alpha=0.15, color=NORMAL_ZONE) + ax.axhspan(100, 200, alpha=0.15, color=WARNING_ZONE) + ax.axhspan(200, 300, alpha=0.15, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax.plot(b_years, b_vals, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=0.8) + ax.axhline(y=200, color=BUBBLE_ZONE, linestyle="--", linewidth=1) + ax.text(2000, 205, "Danger: 200%", fontsize=7, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax.annotate( + f"{b_vals[-1]:.0f}%", + xy=(2026, b_vals[-1]), fontsize=7, fontweight="bold", + color=BUBBLE_ZONE, xytext=(2020, b_vals[-1] + 10), + arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color=BUBBLE_ZONE, lw=0.6), + ) + ax.set_title("Buffett Indicator (1975–2026)", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("Mkt Cap / GDP %") + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + + # Panel (0,2): S&P 500 P/E + ax = axes[0, 2] + pe_years = [d["year"] for d in sp500_pe] + pe_vals = [d["value"] for d in sp500_pe] + ax.plot(pe_years, pe_vals, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=0.8) + ax.axhline(y=17.9, color="#333", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.6) + ax.text(2020, 19, "mean: 17.9", fontsize=7, color=GRAY_MEDIUM) + ax.annotate( + f"{pe_vals[-1]:.1f}", + xy=(2026, pe_vals[-1]), fontsize=7, fontweight="bold", + color=WARNING_ZONE, xytext=(2023, pe_vals[-1] - 3), + arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color=WARNING_ZONE, lw=0.6), + ) + ax.set_title("S&P 500 P/E (1950–2026)", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("P/E") + ax.set_ylim(0, 75) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # ROW 2: AI Infrastructure Buildout + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + # Panel (1,0): Hyperscaler Capex (stacked area, 2020–2026) + ax = axes[1, 0] + company_colors = get_company_colors() + companies = ["Microsoft", "Alphabet", "Meta", "Amazon"] + years_annual = list(range(2020, 2027)) + + data = {c: [0.0] * 7 for c in companies} + for entry in hyperscaler_capex_annual: + idx = entry["year"] - 2020 + if 0 <= idx < 7: + data[entry["company"]][idx] = entry["capex_billions"] + + y_off = np.zeros(7) + for c in companies: + vals = np.array(data[c], dtype=float) + ax.fill_between( + years_annual, y_off, y_off + vals, + alpha=0.7, color=company_colors[c], label=c, + ) + y_off += vals + + ax.set_title("Hyperscaler Capex (2020–2026)", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("Capex $B") + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + ax.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=6, framealpha=0.8) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2, axis="y") + + # Panel (1,1): Tech Debt Spike + ax = axes[1, 1] + debt_years = [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026] + debt_vals = [25, 30, 28, 25, 30, 121, 125] + colors_debt = [GRAY_DARK] * 5 + [BUBBLE_ZONE, WARNING_ZONE] + bars = ax.bar(debt_years, debt_vals, color=colors_debt, width=0.5) + avg5 = np.mean(debt_vals[:5]) + ax.axhline(y=avg5, color="#333", linestyle="--", linewidth=1) + ax.text(2022, avg5 + 3, f"pre-2025 avg: ${avg5:.0f}B", + fontsize=7, color=GRAY_MEDIUM) + ax.text(2025.5, 125 + 5, "4× spike!", fontsize=8, + fontweight="bold", color=BUBBLE_ZONE, ha="right") + ax.set_title("Tech Debt: 2025 4× Spike", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("Debt $B") + ax.set_ylim(0, 150) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + + # Panel (1,2): NVIDIA Data Center Revenue + ax = axes[1, 2] + dc_rev = [d.get("data_center_billions", + d.get("compute_billions", 0) + d.get("networking_billions", 0)) + for d in nvidia_revenue] + quarters = list(range(len(dc_rev))) + ax.fill_between(quarters, dc_rev, alpha=0.25, color=REVENUE) + ax.plot(quarters, dc_rev, color=REVENUE, linewidth=1) + + # Mark the inflection and latest + nvidia_quarters_labels = [d["fiscal_quarter"] for d in nvidia_revenue] + # Highlight 2026-Q4 (index 27) + latest_idx = len(dc_rev) - 2 # before FY2027-Q1 + ax.plot(latest_idx, dc_rev[latest_idx], "o", color=REVENUE, + markersize=5) + ax.annotate( + f"${dc_rev[latest_idx]:.1f}B", + xy=(latest_idx, dc_rev[latest_idx]), + xytext=(latest_idx - 3, dc_rev[latest_idx] - 8), + fontsize=7, fontweight="bold", color=REVENUE, + arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color=REVENUE, lw=0.5), + ) + ax.set_title("NVIDIA DC Revenue (Quarterly)", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_ylabel("Revenue $B") + ax.tick_params(labelsize=7) + ax.set_xticks(range(0, len(quarters), 4)) + ax.set_xticklabels([nvidia_quarters_labels[i].replace("FY", "") + for i in range(0, len(quarters), 4)], + rotation=45, ha="right") + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # ROW 3: Agent Revolution and Reality + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + # Panel (2,0): GPU Utilization Paradox + ax = axes[2, 0] + cats = ["AI Spend", "GPU Util.", "Target", "Human"] + vals = [100, 5, 65, 85] + colors_util = [AI_SPEND, BUBBLE_ZONE, NORMAL_ZONE, WARNING_ZONE] + bars = ax.barh(cats, vals, color=colors_util, height=0.5) + for bar, v in zip(bars, vals): + ax.text(v + 2, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height() / 2, + f"{v}%", va="center", fontsize=8, fontweight="bold", + color=BLACK) + ax.set_title("GPU Utilization Paradox", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_xlim(0, 115) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=8) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2, axis="x") + + # Panel (2,1): Developer AI Reality + ax = axes[2, 1] + dev_cats = ["Use AI tools", "Daily AI use", "AI code merged", "AI PR issues"] + dev_vals = [84, 51, 22, 70] # 70 ≈ 1.7× more issues (scaled to %) + dev_colors = [AGENT_GROWTH, AGENT_GROWTH, NORMAL_ZONE, BUBBLE_ZONE] + bars = ax.barh(dev_cats, dev_vals, color=dev_colors, height=0.5) + for bar, v in zip(bars, dev_vals): + ax.text(v + 2, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height() / 2, + f"{v}%", va="center", fontsize=8, fontweight="bold", + color=BLACK) + ax.set_title("Developer AI Reality", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_xlim(0, 100) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=8) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2, axis="x") + + # Panel (2,2): Enterprise Agent Adoption + ax = axes[2, 2] + surveys = ["LangChain", "McKinsey", "PwC"] + labels = ["In production", "Scaling agents", "Measurable value"] + adoption = [ + agent_survey_data["langchain_2025"]["production"], + agent_survey_data["mckinsey_2025"]["agentic_ai_scaling"], + agent_survey_data["pwc_2025"]["measurable_productivity_value"], + ] + bars = ax.barh(surveys, adoption, color=AGENT_GROWTH, height=0.5) + for bar, v, label in zip(bars, adoption, labels): + ax.text(v + 1, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height() / 2, + f"{v:.0f}% ({label})", va="center", fontsize=7, + fontweight="bold", color=BLACK) + ax.set_title("Enterprise Agent Adoption", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold") + ax.set_xlim(0, 100) + ax.tick_params(labelsize=8) + ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2, axis="x") + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Row labels (vertical text on the left) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + fig.text(0.02, 0.78, "MARKET BUBBLE EVIDENCE", fontsize=10, + fontweight="bold", color=GRAY_MEDIUM, rotation=90, + va="center") + fig.text(0.02, 0.50, "AI INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT", fontsize=10, + fontweight="bold", color=GRAY_MEDIUM, rotation=90, + va="center") + fig.text(0.02, 0.22, "AGENT REVOLUTION & REALITY", fontsize=10, + fontweight="bold", color=GRAY_MEDIUM, rotation=90, + va="center") + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Overall title + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + fig.suptitle( + "The AI Bubble and the Fundamental Value of LLMs — June 2026", + fontsize=20, fontweight="bold", y=0.98, + ) + + fig.subplots_adjust( + hspace=0.35, wspace=0.25, + left=0.06, right=0.98, + top=0.95, bottom=0.04, + ) + + out_path = "output/combined/narrative_dashboard.png" + fig.savefig( + out_path, dpi=EXPORT_DPI, + facecolor=fig.get_facecolor(), edgecolor="none", + ) + plt.close(fig) + return out_path + + +def main(): + path = plot_narrative_dashboard() + print(f"Dashboard saved: {path}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()