diff --git a/src/charts/bubble_dashboard.py b/src/charts/bubble_dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b2cbc4 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/charts/bubble_dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +"""Composite Bubble Indicators Dashboard — 2x2 grid""" +import matplotlib +matplotlib.use("Agg") + +# Patch matplotlib Path.__deepcopy__ to break Python 3.14 recursion loop +# This is a known bug: https://github.com/matplotlib/matplotlib/issues/29280 +try: + from matplotlib.path import Path + _original_path_deepcopy = Path.__deepcopy__ + def _safe_path_deepcopy(self, memo): + if id(self) in memo: + return memo[id(self)] + memo[id(self)] = self + return self + Path.__deepcopy__ = _safe_path_deepcopy +except Exception: + pass + +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +from src.data.market_bubbles import shiller_cape, buffett_indicator, sp500_pe +from src.utils.styling import ( + get_theme, EXPORT_DPI, BUBBLE_ZONE, WARNING_ZONE, NORMAL_ZONE, + GRAY_DARK, BLACK, WHITE, FIGURE_SIZE_WIDE +) + + +def plot_bubble_dashboard() -> str: + """Generate 2x2 composite dashboard: CAPE, Buffett, P/E, AI Multiples.""" + plt.rcParams.update(get_theme()) + fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(16, 12)) + + # Panel 1: CAPE (top-left) + ax1 = axes[0, 0] + years = [d["year"] for d in shiller_cape] + values = [d["value"] for d in shiller_cape] + ax1.axhspan(0, 20, alpha=0.15, color=NORMAL_ZONE) + ax1.axhspan(20, 30, alpha=0.15, color=WARNING_ZONE) + ax1.axhspan(30, 50, alpha=0.15, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax1.plot(years, values, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=1) + ax1.axhline(y=17.39, color="#333", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.8) + ax1.set_title("Shiller CAPE (1880–2026)", fontsize=13, fontweight="bold") + ax1.set_ylabel("CAPE") + ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + ax1.set_ylim(0, 50) + + # Panel 2: Buffett Indicator (top-right) + ax2 = axes[0, 1] + b_years = [d["year"] for d in buffett_indicator] + b_values = [d["value"] for d in buffett_indicator] + ax2.axhspan(0, 100, alpha=0.15, color=NORMAL_ZONE) + ax2.axhspan(100, 200, alpha=0.15, color=WARNING_ZONE) + ax2.axhspan(200, 300, alpha=0.15, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax2.plot(b_years, b_values, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=1) + ax2.axhline(y=200, color=BUBBLE_ZONE, linestyle="--", linewidth=1) + ax2.text(2010, 205, "Danger: 200%", fontsize=9, color=BUBBLE_ZONE) + ax2.set_title("Buffett Indicator (1975–2026)", fontsize=13, fontweight="bold") + ax2.set_ylabel("Mkt Cap / GDP (%)") + ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + + # Panel 3: P/E (bottom-left) + ax3 = axes[1, 0] + pe_years = [d["year"] for d in sp500_pe] + pe_values = [d["value"] for d in sp500_pe] + ax3.plot(pe_years, pe_values, color=GRAY_DARK, linewidth=1) + ax3.axhline(y=18.2, color="#333", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.8) + ax3.set_title("S&P 500 P/E Ratio (1950–2026)", fontsize=13, fontweight="bold") + ax3.set_ylabel("P/E Ratio") + ax3.set_xlabel("Year") + ax3.grid(True, alpha=0.2) + ax3.set_ylim(0, 75) + + # Panel 4: AI Startup Multiples (bottom-right) + ax4 = axes[1, 1] + companies = ["OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Perplexity", "Mistral AI", "S&P Avg (ref)"] + multiples = [31, 40, 45, 120, 18] + colors_bar = [WARNING_ZONE, WARNING_ZONE, BUBBLE_ZONE, BUBBLE_ZONE, NORMAL_ZONE] + bars = ax4.barh(companies, multiples, color=colors_bar, edgecolor="white", height=0.6) + ax4.set_xlabel("Revenue Multiple (x)", fontsize=11) + ax4.set_title("AI Startup Valuation Multiples", fontsize=13, fontweight="bold") + ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.2, axis="x") + # Add value labels + for bar, val in zip(bars, multiples): + ax4.text(val + 2, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height() / 2, f"{val}x", + va="center", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold") + + fig.suptitle("Market Bubble Indicators — June 2026", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold", y=0.98) + fig.subplots_adjust(hspace=0.35, wspace=0.25, top=0.93, bottom=0.05) + + fig.savefig("output/charts/04_bubble_dashboard.png", dpi=EXPORT_DPI, + facecolor=fig.get_facecolor(), edgecolor="none") + plt.close(fig) + return "output/charts/04_bubble_dashboard.png" + + +def main(): + path = plot_bubble_dashboard() + print(f"Dashboard saved: {path}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()