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Data retrieved June 2026. + +## 1. Bubble Indicators Comparison + +| Indicator | Current Value | Historical Mean | Zone | Source | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| Shiller CAPE | 40.03 | 17.39 | Bubble (>30) | Yale/Shiller | +| Buffett Indicator | 219% | ~105% | Bubble (>200%) | Composite | +| S&P 500 P/E | 29.6 | ~17.9 | Warning | multpl.com | +| Dividend Yield | 1.04% | ~3.15% | Near historic low | multpl.com | + +## 2. Hyperscaler Capex by Year/Company + +| Year | Microsoft | Alphabet | Meta | Amazon | Combined | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| 2020 | $8B | $16B | $14B | $17B | $55.3B | +| 2021 | $21B | $22B | $16B | $52B | $110.5B | +| 2022 | $28B | $25B | $19B | $61B | $132.7B | +| 2023 | $30B | $32B | $28B | $71B | $160.8B | +| 2024 | $53B | $52B | $38B | $83B | $226.0B | +| 2025 | $80B | $75B | $60-$72B | $80-$131B | ~$326B | +| 2026 | $100B+ | $175-$185B | $115-$135B | $200B | ~$605B | + +## 3. AI Startup Valuations + +| Company | Valuation | Revenue Multiple | Date | Source | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| OpenAI | $840B | 31x revenue | Q1 2026 | CB Insights | +| Anthropic | $380B | 40x revenue | Q1 2026 | CB Insights | +| Perplexity AI | $5.3B | 27x revenue | Q1 2025 | Crunchbase | +| Scale AI | $14B | 7x revenue | 2024 | Crunchbase | +| Mistral AI | $8B | 40x revenue | 2024 | Company filings | +| Cohere | $3.7B | N/A (pre-profit) | 2024 | Crunchbase | +| Hugging Face | $4.5B | N/A (pre-profit) | 2024 | Crunchbase | + +## 4. Agent Adoption Survey Data + +| Survey | Production % | Scaling % | Sample Size | Date | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| LangChain 2025 | 57.3% | — | 1,340 | 2025-11 to 2025-12 | +| McKinsey 2025 | — | 23% | 1,993 | 2025-11 | +| PwC 2025 | 79% | — | 308 | 2025-04 | + +## 5. Productivity Case Study Metrics + +| Company | System | Key Metric | Value | Confidence | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| Klarna | AI Assistant (LangGraph + LangSmith) | FTE equivalent | 700 | HIGH | +| Klarna | AI Assistant (LangGraph + LangSmith) | Resolution time reduction | 80% | HIGH | +| Klarna | AI Assistant (LangGraph + LangSmith) | Task automation | 70% | HIGH | +| JPMorgan Chase | COiN (Contract Intelligence) | Hours saved/year | 360,000 | HIGH | +| JPMorgan Chase | COiN (Contract Intelligence) | Contracts processed/year | 12,000 | HIGH | +| JPMorgan Chase | COiN (Contract Intelligence) | Annual value | $150,000,000 | HIGH | +| ServiceNow (SnowGeek) | Now Assist + Agentic AI for IT Operations | Midnight escalation reduction | 73% | MEDIUM | +| ServiceNow (SnowGeek) | Now Assist + Agentic AI for IT Operations | MTTR improvement | 65% | MEDIUM | +| ServiceNow (SnowGeek) | Now Assist + Agentic AI for IT Operations | Annual downtime savings | $2,300,000 | MEDIUM | +| Morgan Stanley | DevGen.AI Developer Assistant | Developer hours saved | 280,000 | LOW | + +## 6. Failure Modes + +| Finding | Rate | Source | Confidence | +|---|---|---|---| +| 95% of corporate AI pilots deliver zero measurable return; only 5% reach production with impact | 95% | MIT Media Lab 2025 | HIGH | +| 42% of companies abandoned most AI initiatives in 2025 (up from 17% in 2024); 46% of PoCs scrapped before production | 42% | S&P Global 2025 | HIGH | +| Over 80% of AI projects fail — twice the failure rate of non-AI technology projects | 80% | RAND Corporation 2025 | MEDIUM | +| ~80% of autonomous-AI deployers cut headcount; ZERO correlation between layoffs and ROI | — | Gartner May 2026 | MEDIUM | +| Over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by end of 2027 due to escalating costs, unclear value, or inadequate risk controls | 40% | Gartner prediction | MEDIUM | +| 88% AI adoption but only 31% scaling — vast majority stuck in pilots | — | McKinsey State of AI 2025 | HIGH | +| External partnership deployments succeed at ~67% vs ~33% for internal builds | — | MIT Media Lab 2025 | MEDIUM | +| 90%+ of companies have employees using personal AI tools; only 40% have official licensing | — | Multiple sources | MEDIUM | + +--- +*Tables generated programmatically from research data modules.* \ No newline at end of file