# Supplementary Research Findings — Battle Cards

> Research conducted for Phase 2.2: Current evidence (Q1-Q2 2026) to supplement existing narrative data.

## Card 1: Market Valuation Extremes
- [Relevant findings — if any, this card relies primarily on historical data modules]

## Card 2: AI Infrastructure Buildout
### AWS H200 Price Increase (January 2026)
- **Data:** AWS raised H200 prices 15% in January 2026 — first compute price increase in 20 years
- **Details:** p5e.48xlarge (8 H200s) now $39.80/hour; idle H100 at ~$6.88/GPU-hour
- **Source:** Data Center Dynamics, January 2026
- **Confidence:** HIGH

## Card 3: GPU Utilization Paradox
### Cast AI 2026 Kubernetes Report
- **Data:** 5% average GPU utilization across tens of thousands of production clusters; 8% CPU; 20% memory
- **Source:** Cast AI 2026 State of Kubernetes Optimization Report
- **Confidence:** HIGH
### Optimized Clusters
- **Data:** Documented case of 49% GPU utilization across 136 H200s (10x improvement)
- **Source:** Cast AI 2026 report
- **Confidence:** HIGH
### Market Pivot to Efficiency
- **Data:** "Cost per inference/TCO" rose from 34% to 41% as top priority (Q1 2026)
- **Source:** VentureBeat Q1 2026 AI Infrastructure & Compute Market Tracker
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM

## Card 4: Startup Valuation Disconnect
### Anthropic Funding Round (May 2026)
- **Data:** $900B valuation (~180x estimated revenue); 500+ customers paying $1M+/year
- **Source:** aibusiness.vc, May 8, 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM (reported, not officially confirmed)
### OpenAI ARR
- **Data:** $25B ARR; IPO projected at $300-400B (~12-16x revenue)
- **Source:** aibusiness.vc, May 8, 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM (widely reported but not officially confirmed)

## Card 5: Enterprise Deployment
### Agentic AI ROI Study (May 2026)
- **Data:** Average ROI of 171% across 12 documented deployments; 74% achieved ROI within first year
- **Source:** beri.net, May 19, 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM (aggregated case study)
### Salesforce Legal AI
- **Data:** $5M+ saved in outside counsel costs; Agentforce cumulative savings exceed $100M
- **Source:** Salesforce official metrics; beri.net May 2026
- **Confidence:** HIGH (vendor-published)
### MIT NANDA GenAI Divide (July 2025)
- **Data:** 95% of enterprise AI pilots deliver zero measurable P&L impact; 42% abandoned majority of AI projects
- **Source:** MIT NANDA report, Fortune August 2025
- **Confidence:** HIGH (academically-backed)

## Card 6: Developer Adoption
### GitHub Copilot Scale (July 2025 - June 2026)
- **Data:** 20M cumulative users, 4.7M paid, $2B+ ARR, 90% Fortune 100 deployed
- **Source:** Microsoft CEO announcement July 2025; aibusiness.vc June 2026
- **Confidence:** HIGH (official Microsoft figures)
### Copilot Code Generation
- **Data:** 46% of code for active users is AI-generated; task completion 55% faster; PR time reduced 75%
- **Source:** GitHub research; corporatebloggingtips.com May 2026
- **Confidence:** HIGH (GitHub's own research)
### Cursor Valuation
- **Data:** $29.3B valuation; ~$500M ARR; fastest-growing AI coding tool
- **Source:** aibusiness.vc 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM

## Card 7: Code Quality Caveats
### Python Security Weaknesses
- **Data:** 29.1% of Copilot-generated Python contains potential security weaknesses
- **Source:** GitHub/Microsoft research; corporatebloggingtips.com May 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM
### AI Tool Security Incidents
- **Data:** 88% of enterprises reported AI agent security incidents in last 12 months
- **Source:** VentureBeat survey 2026
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM
### Quality Improvements
- **Data:** Code readability +3.62%, reliability +2.94%, maintainability +2.47%, conciseness +4.16%
- **Source:** GitHub research; Microsoft Research
- **Confidence:** MEDIUM (modest improvements)

## Card 8: Long-Term Productivity
### Accenture RCT Results
- **Data:** 8.69% PR increase, 84% successful build rate improvement, 46% faster task completion
- **Source:** Accenture randomized controlled trial
- **Confidence:** HIGH (RCT methodology)
### Human-AI Collaboration
- **Data:** Combined human-AI pair produces better code than either alone (consistent across GitHub, MS Research, independent studies)
- **Source:** Multiple independent research organizations
- **Confidence:** HIGH

## Key Caveats for Card Writers
1. **ROI data is skewed**: 171% average ROI vs. 95% zero-ROI — both can be true (top 5% drive averages)
2. **Klarna partially reversed**: Bloomberg May 2025 reported Klarna restored human customer service for complex queries
3. **Valuation figures are estimates**: Anthropic $900B and OpenAI $25B ARR are reported, not confirmed
4. **GPU data may have vendor bias**: Cast AI sells GPU optimization tools
5. **Developer surveys have selection bias**: GitHub data captures active users, not abandoners
