# Card 2: AI Infrastructure Buildout

> Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending has exploded 10x in 6 years, raising questions about sustainable ROI.

## Fact

- Combined hyperscaler capex surged from $55B in 2020 to a projected $605B in 2026 — a 10x increase in 6 years *(Source: SEC filings, company earnings, 2020-2026)*
- AI-related spending now accounts for 85-90% of total hyperscaler capex in 2026 *(Source: analyst estimates, company disclosures)*
- Tech debt spiked to $121B in 2025 — 4x the 5-year average — as companies rush to build AI infrastructure *(Source: tech debt tracking data, 2025)*
- NVIDIA data center revenue grew from $1.57B (FY2020 Q1) to $75.2B (FY2027 Q1) — a 48x increase *(Source: NVIDIA earnings reports)*

![](../charts/mini_capex_trajectory.png)

## Impact

- **Massive capital commitment creates overhang**: $605B in annual capex is unprecedented for a single sector. If AI ROI disappoints, stranded assets could trigger write-downs.
- **Diminishing returns likely**: The law of diminishing returns applies to infrastructure spending. Each additional dollar of GPU investment yields less marginal AI capability.
- **AWS price increases signal supply constraints**: AWS raised H200 prices 15% in January 2026 — the first compute price increase in 20 years, indicating capacity is becoming a bottleneck *(Source: Data Center Dynamics, January 2026)*.

## Act

- **When debating AI infrastructure**: Question capex efficiency. A 10x spending increase in 6 years is unsustainable without proportional revenue growth.
- **Key question to ask**: "What revenue per dollar of AI infrastructure investment are companies seeing, and is it improving?"
- **Historical parallel**: During the dot-com boom, fiber optic infrastructure was overbuilt by 80%. The internet proved transformative, but many infrastructure investments took a decade to become profitable.

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*Last updated: 2026-06-05 | Sources: SEC filings, company earnings reports, ValueAddVC, Data Center Dynamics, NVIDIA earnings*
